Latest news on the Solar Cycle

Solar physicist David Hathaway has been looking at the sun every day since 1998, and every day, for six years has found sunspots. Sunspots are “islands” sized planets, which appear on the surface of the Sun are dark, cold, highly magnetized, and fleeting as a sunspot lasts only a few days or weeks before fading. As soon as one disappears, another emerges and takes its place.

Even during solar minimum activity, you can see one or two sunspots. But when Hathaway looked on January 28, 2004, there was nothing there. The sun was completely clean.

And the same to happen again last week, twice, 11 and October 12. There was no trace of sunspots.

“This is a signal,” says Hathaway, “that the solar minimum is coming, and closer than we thought.”

Right: The Sun without spots, on October 11, 2004, photographed by the Solar and Hemispheric Observatory of ESA / NASA.

Solar minimum and solar maximum – “Solar Min” and “Solar Max” for short – are the two extremes of the cycle of 11 years of solar activity. At the maximum, the sun is peppered with spots, flares, and throws billions of tons of electrified gas clouds toward Earth. It is a good time for observers of the sky which then enjoyed the view of the aurora, but not so good for astronauts who have to be careful with radiation storms. Fluctuations in electric power, satellites useless, defects in the operation of GPS devices – are a few examples of what can happen during maximum solar activity.

The solar minimum is different. Sunspots are few – sometimes it may take days or weeks without a blemish. The solar flare subsides. It is a good time to travel through space, but is less interesting to watch polar skies.

Hathaway is an expert in solar cycle predictions. Notes the number of spots (the best known indicator of solar activity) and predicts years in advance when the next show peaks and valleys. Not an easy task.

“Despite popular belief,” says Hathaway, “the solar cycle is not exactly 11 years.” Its length, measured from minimum to maximum, varies: “The cycle may be shorter than 9 years, and the longer cycle of 14″. What determines that a cycle is short or long? Researchers are not sure. “We do not even know if a cycle is short or long until it is finished,” they say.
Researchers, however, are progressing. Hathaway and colleague Wilson, both working at the Marshall Space Flight Center of NASA, believe they have found a very simple rule for predicting the date of the next solar minimum. “We reviewed information from the past eight solar cycles and discovered that Solar Min” follows the first day without stains that appear after the “Solar Max” at 34 months, “explains Hathaway.

The last peak of solar cycle was in late 2000. The first day after it was spot on January 28, 2004. Thus, using Hathaway and Wilson rule, the solar minimum will appear at the end of 2006. This is about a year ahead of schedule.

The next solar maximum may also occur very soon, says Hathaway. “Solar activity intensifies rapidly after solar minimum. In recent cycles, Solar Max has followed Solar Min by just 4 years later.” Applying the math: 2006 + 4 years = 2010.

According to the new perspective for space exploration at NASA, will launch a robot craft to the moon expedition as advanced human explorers. If Hathaway and Wilson prediction is correct, those robots will need good shields. The solar flares radioctivas and storms can damage silicon brains and electronic circuits at least as much as their human counterparts.